Next Thursday is a big day for video game fans around the world. Super Mario, one of the most iconic video game characters in gaming history will finally make his official debut on mobile devices in what must be one of the most anticipated mobile game launches of all time.

Considering the hype that is constantly building, Super Mario Run, the game that was first teased during Apple’s iPhone 7 event in September, is all but certain to be a huge hit. But will it be bigger than Pokémon Go, the game that 2016 will most definitely be remembered for?

Apparently that depends on what metric you’re interested in. According to a forecast published by by app analytics firm SensorTower, Super Mario Run could beat Pokémon Go in terms of downloads during its first month of availability, but will be no match for it in terms of revenue generated. The biggest challenge for Nintendo will be to convince interested players to spend the unusually high price of $9.99 for full access to the game. Pokémon Go generates revenue from in-app purchases of virtual items that help players in their hunt for new monsters.

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